PLEASANT SURPRISE – AT 9:20 A.M. ET:  One state expected to be tough for Republicans in their drive to gain control of the Senate is Iowa, where the election will decide who will replace retiring Democratic Senator Tom Harkin.  But there is good polling news that should give us encouragement.  From Paul Mirengoff at Powerline: 

A new NBC/Marist poll of the Iowa Senate race finds Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Joni Ernst tied at 43 percent. The poll is of registered voters.

The NBC/Marist result is in line with the findings, viewed collectively, of three surveys conducted last month. A Quinnipiac poll had Braley ahead by 4; a Loras College poll had Ernst up by 6; and a Rasmussen poll gave Ernst a 1 point lead.

After the Loras poll results were released, I said that the Rasmussen poll seemed to best reflect the state of the race. The NBC/Marist poll confirms my assessment.

And...

...even more than in a normal campaign, this race will probably turn on how well the candidates present themselves. But other things being about equal, Ernst will have an edge if, as many expect, Republicans benefit from greater enthusiasm on the part of their potential voters.

And a “war on women” theme presumably will prove less than compelling when trotted out against Joni Ernst.

COMMENT:  Ernst is a member of the State Senate and a lieutenant colonel in the Iowa National Guard.  She is raising more money than her opponent, Bruce Braley, who is given to gaffes. 

It will probably be close, but it looks very winnable for our side.

July 17, 2014